Thursday, May 8, 2008

Obama announces intention to play "Let's Pretend" with the delegate count

Let's be honest - in all fairness, the Clinton campaign has been playing "Let's Pretend" with the delegate count for weeks now. Up until now, however, Obama has largely stayed above this, preferring to allow his heretofore commanding delegate lead - and the DNC rules regarding how the nominee is chosen - to speak for itself.

However, a story that I first saw on MSN today and which has been widely covered (here it is at politico.com) suggests that Obama is tired of messing around with this reality crap, and has decided that "Let's Pretend" is the game for him. The story, headlined "Obama Plans to Declare Victory May 20th," at first blush doesn't seem all that interesting. The pundits have been declaring for weeks that Clinton's campaign was in the weeds, more than likely never to return. Just yesterday I myself made the prognostication that Clinton would be forced to pull out of the race once primary season ran its course on June 3rd. So it would seem that Obama's decision to declare victory is de rigeur at this point.

Or is it? Reading through the story, it seems that Obama's decision to declare victory is based on the fact that after May 20th he will have a majority of the pledged delegates (1627 out of 3253 total). A majority? Since when does a majority matter? As anyone who has been conscious during the past 16 months of campaigning can attest, a majority of pledged delegates doesn't get you a stale glass of champagne at the DNC convention, much less the nomination of the party. Unless we've entered another campaign bizarro world in which 50% + 1 suddenly constitutes victory- as opposed to the bizarro world in which a majority of the popular vote equaled victory as Clinton's campaign seemed to espouse - Obama is completely in la-la land on this one on both rules and math:

Rules: The DNC is a magic number kind of an organization, meaning that neither Clinton nor Obama will be the nominee until one or the other reaches the magic delegate number of 2025. Obama won't be anywhere near this number of May 20th - in fact, there's a real possibility that, unless Clinton drops out of the race and some of her delegates are released, no one will have reached this magic number by convention time. No magic number, no nomination. That's the way it works around these parts.

Math: But wait a minute...that 2025 number might not even be correct. If Florida and Michigan are seated at the convention, then 2209 is more likely the magic number. And this isn't just my way of playing "Let's Pretend." DNC chair Howard Dean has suggested that both Florida and Michigan will be seated at the convention in some as-yet-to-be-determined capacity. And this is only fair; party rules or no party rules, it seems ridiculous and inherently undemocratic to disenfranchise several million people out of spite.

The real kicker here is that Obama will undoubtedly be the Democratic nominee. Now, if he can only keep his hands to himself long enough to allow that mantle to be placed on his shoulders instead of ripping it out of the hands of the people like a recalcitrant child.

Hope be damned! Let's just settle for avarice and call it a day.

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